No other news outlet does this. Every forecast we make gets tagged HIGH, MODERATE, or LOW confidence — and then we track whether it came true. Below: every call we’ve made, scored honestly, including the ones we got wrong.
Translation: When we tag a forecast HIGH, we're right about three times out of four. Our target is 70%+. We're above target.
Act on these. If BSFN says HIGH, treat it as something you can make a decision on.
Translation: When we tag MODERATE, we're right more than half the time. Our target is 55%+. On target.
Weight these, don't bet them. A MODERATE call is an edge, not a lock.
Translation: A LOW tag means "this is a scenario you should be aware of" — not "this is what we predict will happen." Our target is under 50%. By design.
This number is supposed to be low. If LOW calls came true 80% of the time, we'd be suppressing signal.
Every news outlet makes predictions. Most bury the wrong ones. We don’t. Every prediction we make gets a tracking ID, a confidence tag, a date, and an outcome. The full log is auditable. When we’re wrong, we say so. When we’re right, we don’t overclaim.
HIGH— We have independent confirmation across two or more source ecosystems, the causal chain is clear, and we’ve stress-tested the call against the strongest counter-argument. Target accuracy: 70% or higher.
MODERATE— Directionally confident, but the evidence is single-stream, or the causal chain has a soft joint, or the counter-argument isn’t fully dismissed. Target: 55% or higher.
LOW— A scenario worth flagging because the downside of missing it is high, even if we don’t think it’s the most likely outcome. Target: under 50%. By design.
1. Retroactively edit predictions.Once a forecast is published with an ID, it’s locked. Wrong calls stay on the record.
2. Cherry-pick the wins. The scorecard above counts every resolved prediction, not just the ones that make us look good.
3. Hide behind “we said it could happen.”If we tagged something HIGH and it didn’t happen, it’s a miss. Period.
Before you act on anything in a BSFN briefing, check the confidence tag. If it’s HIGH, treat it as actionable. If it’s MODERATE, weight it but don’t lean on it. If it’s LOW, note it as a scenario — not a forecast.
The numbers above update weekly. Every tagged prediction in every briefing links back to this page.